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Possible Consequences - Asteroid Collisions like Apophis and Others
Let's review again that map (from http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=160
which in turn draws its source material in part from the B612 Foundation
(http://www.b612foundation.org), keeping in mind that this is just one example of
one possible path leafing to impact. However, let's focus on the consequences in terms of:
- loss of life
- loss of property
-
- economic, political, social impacts
- what we know from recent history about mass evacuations and emergency operations
(The following points will be developed further in coming weeks and months. Here is the outline, and much of this is
also going into conference papers and a book in preparation.)
1. The notion that we can, with even an order of magnitude more in supercomputing power, simply simulate everything down to the nth degree of
satisfactory detailed forecasting, is poppycock and really poor science. It flies in the face of everything we know about physics, both
classical dynamics and quantum systems. It flies in the face of complexity theory and nonlinear systems. Let's not be mesmerized by our
skills in generating "pretty realistic" simulations and lets go back to what we fo know about how very large systems behave and interact.
The oceans are really one great big ocean and the continents are flexible and malleable. The point is that there can be a huge number of
unexpected and unpredicted consequences of an asteroid collision even if (and this is unlikely) we could pinpoint that location sufficiently
in order to execute some mass evacuations of 99.99% of the people.
2. Secondary physical consequences - floods, rains, storms, forest fire storms, tsunamis, earthquakes.
3. Cost of mass evacuations, and where to put all the people and for how long
4. Rebuilding entire coastlines and replacing massively a large number of urban regions
5. Disease and impacts upon public health worldwide
6. Global economic effects - far worse than the kind of Recession/Depression we are currently experiencing in 2008-2009.
7. Conflicts, wars, and the outbreak of opportunities for all sorts of state-sponsored and non-state-sponsored aggression and retribution.
8. Our past abilities to move, relocate, and manage large populations before, during and after major incidents
(or simply adjust and get back to normal) - incidents that are like little blips in comparison:
- Katrina, Ike, and other major hurricanes
- The Sichuan (China) Earthquakes of 2008
- The Indian Ocean Tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004
- The Burma (Myanmar) typhoons and floods of 2008
- Any of a number of major power outages due to snow and ice storms in the USA
- The Economy (not only but esp. in the USA) following the 9-11-2001 terrorist attacks
9. Anyone who thinks that, given advanced "ironclad" calculations, we can know precisely, satisfactorily, where an asteroid the size of
99942 Apophis is going to hit, in what manner precisely it will or will not break up into pieces entering the atmosphere, in what
precise way the actual impact collision(s) will occur, what size and speed of waves will be generated, which neighborhoods and zipcodes
need to be evacuated, which houses will be destroyed and which will be spared...(where does one stop in the farce of "we can simulate everything"?)
... well, anyone who thinks that way, has probably never actually been personally around a hurricane, tornado, flood, earthquake, or forest fire.
You cannot simulate and predict things the way some people think. Those people have spent too much time in their academic ivory towers or corporate office parks.
You cannot begin to estimate the problems in logistics, psychology, economics, politics.
It's much more sensible to spend a tiny bit of money, slowly, over years, as a long-term investment, just like one does with IRA's, 401k's and
college tuition funds, and end up with a number of complementary Win-Win economic and social outcomes that come from ASTRIC as defined, proposaed, and now underway.
It's much cheaper, easier, sounder, and comforting for All.
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